Just ask any adult older than 50 how many autistic kids they knew when they were growing up. And compare that to the numbers that are in our schools now.
Where did they used to hide them all?
And if there were as many then as now, where are all the autistic adults who were those children? I'm not talking about the quirky ones who give TED talks and write on social media. I'm talking about the ones who cannot function in independent living settings, who shuffle around with noise-canceling headphones eating only chicken nuggets and French fries. Who cannot toilet themselves or hold a job without outside support.
Peter Bowtie talks like a shill for pharma.
Also, if the increase is due strictly to broadened diagnostic criteria, why is the increase continuing? Seems that once the previously unidentified folks are now identified (surely it's been long enough!), the increase would plateau.
I just finished reading *Neurotribes* which makes this same argument (that autism rates spiked because of DSM reclassification). But that book came out in 2016. The longer time series correlations we have, the more these types of arguments weaken. (Though these correlations were available to the author; it would be interesting to see if they continue to hold in the intervening 15 years.)
Obesity and diabetes stem from overeating behaviors. "Overweight and obese individuals have higher levels of the arachidonic acid (AA) derived endocannabinoid N-arachidonoylethanolamine (AEA) and 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) and an altered pattern of receptor expression. Since endocannabinoids are products of dietary fats, modification of the omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake modulates the endocannabinoids, with eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) displacing AA from cell membranes, reducing AEA and 2-AG production, resulting in decrease in appetite and food intake leading to weight loss." https://www.ocl-journal.org/articles/ocl/full_html/2020/01/ocl190046s/ocl190046s.html
They might get better results if they followed this protocol. "Since, arachidonic acid (AA) competes with EPA and DHA as well as with LA, ALA and oleic acid for incorporation in membrane lipids at the same positions, all these fatty acids are important for controlling the AA concentration in membrane lipids...Enhancement of membrane concentrations of EPA and DHA will not be as efficient as a similar decrease in the AA concentration..." https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2875212/
Yeah, diagnostic changes and more awareness skew the numbers but I don't think it's just that.
Some factors that might have an effect are things like assortative mating, more genetic mixing (incompatibilities?), and the thing I suspect you are interested in - bad diet and oxidative stress (in parents and child).
“The role, if any, of environmental toxins is still to be determined, but there is no known environmental factor that can explain the sudden jump in diagnoses. The changes we made to the diagnosis in the D.S.M.-IV can.” (Frances, 2025)
No *known* environmental factor.
In this statement, at least, he's jumping to a conclusion.
I really like your analysis it’s the most logical and open minded I’ve seen. You ask when did the rate of autism start to increase, and focus on things that changed around the same timeline. Your timeline for the autism increase is earlier than most, I’ve seen. Another factor is prenatal vs postnatal causes. If Autism isn’t usually diagnosed before age 3, then there would be a 3-4 year lag with prenatal causes, and a lesser lag with postnatal causes.
I also like that you don’t seem to have preconceived biases. Most people start with a preconceived notion, then twist the data to fit.
Ah-huh.
Just ask any adult older than 50 how many autistic kids they knew when they were growing up. And compare that to the numbers that are in our schools now.
Where did they used to hide them all?
And if there were as many then as now, where are all the autistic adults who were those children? I'm not talking about the quirky ones who give TED talks and write on social media. I'm talking about the ones who cannot function in independent living settings, who shuffle around with noise-canceling headphones eating only chicken nuggets and French fries. Who cannot toilet themselves or hold a job without outside support.
Peter Bowtie talks like a shill for pharma.
Also, if the increase is due strictly to broadened diagnostic criteria, why is the increase continuing? Seems that once the previously unidentified folks are now identified (surely it's been long enough!), the increase would plateau.
Exactly.
I just finished reading *Neurotribes* which makes this same argument (that autism rates spiked because of DSM reclassification). But that book came out in 2016. The longer time series correlations we have, the more these types of arguments weaken. (Though these correlations were available to the author; it would be interesting to see if they continue to hold in the intervening 15 years.)
They do the same thing with CVD. "Oh, it's always been around.”
The solid evidence is, no, it hasn't, at this prevalence.
Maternal obesity and diabetes are associated with autism. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4732357/
Obesity and diabetes stem from overeating behaviors. "Overweight and obese individuals have higher levels of the arachidonic acid (AA) derived endocannabinoid N-arachidonoylethanolamine (AEA) and 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) and an altered pattern of receptor expression. Since endocannabinoids are products of dietary fats, modification of the omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake modulates the endocannabinoids, with eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) displacing AA from cell membranes, reducing AEA and 2-AG production, resulting in decrease in appetite and food intake leading to weight loss." https://www.ocl-journal.org/articles/ocl/full_html/2020/01/ocl190046s/ocl190046s.html
An omega-3/6 imbalance can be corrected by reducing arachidonic acid intake. When researchers attempt to treat autism with omega-3 supplements, they typically fail to reduce arachidonic acid intake. https://www.massgeneral.org/children/autism/lurie-center/omega3-fatty-acids
They might get better results if they followed this protocol. "Since, arachidonic acid (AA) competes with EPA and DHA as well as with LA, ALA and oleic acid for incorporation in membrane lipids at the same positions, all these fatty acids are important for controlling the AA concentration in membrane lipids...Enhancement of membrane concentrations of EPA and DHA will not be as efficient as a similar decrease in the AA concentration..." https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2875212/
Yeah, diagnostic changes and more awareness skew the numbers but I don't think it's just that.
Some factors that might have an effect are things like assortative mating, more genetic mixing (incompatibilities?), and the thing I suspect you are interested in - bad diet and oxidative stress (in parents and child).
“The role, if any, of environmental toxins is still to be determined, but there is no known environmental factor that can explain the sudden jump in diagnoses. The changes we made to the diagnosis in the D.S.M.-IV can.” (Frances, 2025)
No *known* environmental factor.
In this statement, at least, he's jumping to a conclusion.
I really like your analysis it’s the most logical and open minded I’ve seen. You ask when did the rate of autism start to increase, and focus on things that changed around the same timeline. Your timeline for the autism increase is earlier than most, I’ve seen. Another factor is prenatal vs postnatal causes. If Autism isn’t usually diagnosed before age 3, then there would be a 3-4 year lag with prenatal causes, and a lesser lag with postnatal causes.
I also like that you don’t seem to have preconceived biases. Most people start with a preconceived notion, then twist the data to fit.